2024 NFL Draft Final Rankings: Quarterbacks

Approximately one month ago, I released the first iteration of my QB rankings. Those rankings haven't changed greatly as there was already endless film study dating back to November. Today, one week from the draft, I have a majority of my positional rankings done and I will be releasing them in the coming days.

Here are the final rankings in one easy-to-digest graph:

I'd like to address some noteworthy points and changes since the first iteration of these rankings.

To begin, I've divided them into tiers. For instance, I believe USC QB Caleb Williams and UNC QB Drake Maye are both worthy of the first overall pick, while Jayden Daniels and J.J McCarthy fall into picks 2-15, indicating they're a tier below the top two prospects. This might prompt the question: Do I view Jayden Daniels and J.J McCarthy as players of the same tier? The answer is yes, and I think the gap between them is razor-thin.

Let's start with Daniels and why I've placed him as QB3 after a thorough debate against McCarthy. For me, it's simple. Daniels possesses a unique skill set, notably his athleticism, which could serve as a "trump card." While I see Daniels closer to Colin Kaepernick or Robert Griffin III as an athlete than Lamar Jackson, his athleticism remains highly coveted and lethal, especially in the right system. Additionally, he's extremely cautious with the football, understanding the significance of avoiding turnovers. However, like Justin Fields, Daniels faces concerns regarding processing speed and field vision. His over-reliance on athleticism, especially when faced with pressure or  or an early read not being open, is a glaring issue that needs addressing for him to elevate his passing game. Nonetheless, his track record suggests steady improvement year over year.

Regarding McCarthy, I had a tough time putting him 4th due to his promising NFL translation but ultimately his limited passing volume keeps him at 4 for me. The crucial question for him is whether he can translate his third-down brilliance into a consistent, high-volume passing game, a requisite for a potential franchise QB. McCarthy represents one of the most promising QB4 prospects in a long time, with undeniable tools and upside. Though he may lack a definitive "trump card," he ranks highly in many measurable areas, coupled with reported high character intangibles, which could become his distinguishing factor as a pro.

Another significant change is my tier ranking adjustment for Washington QB Michael Penix. Initially I considered him a top-64 player, further film study revealed concerns regarding his ability to handle pressure situations, making his transition to the NFL seem more circumstantial. While I refrain from absolute judgments, based on my film evaluation, Penix appears closer to a third or fourth-round talent, despite potential higher draft placement.

Briefly touching on other prospects, Drake Maye's inconsistency in footwork is noted but possibly overstated. He, like any prospect, carries risk, but I draw parallels to past situations with Justin Herbert and C.J Stroud, where high-end traits were evident despite pre-draft concerns from some.

Oregon QB Bo Nix excels in various areas but doesn't stand out significantly in any single aspect. However, his ability to perform outside of structured plays is surprisingly good. His lightning quick release and willingness to adhere to a gameplan are traits that are easy to appreciate. Concerns arise from Oregon's conservative offense, limiting Nix's deep passing opportunities and exposing some conservatism in his decision-making, particularly evident in the Texas Tech game.

South Carolina's Spencer Rattler remains an intriguing prospect, overlooked due to a lack of production, yet the film shows intriguing potential despite playing with a subpar supporting cast. His arm talent may be slightly overrated, but he compensates with being a loose athlete with enough juice to make plays off-platform.

Finally, prospects like Pratt, Travis, and Leary show promise but with limitations such as small frames, inconsistent performances, or lacking a standout trait. Milton possesses a strong arm but struggles with mechanics and pace. Despite rare athletic ability, his inconsistent performances across various teams and years indicate a lower likelihood of success, hence the day three tier—a player with significant upside but a murky path to relevance, fitting the profile of a mid-to-late day three pick.